Complex Systems, the simple version: The case of aircraft values

Adam Pilarski (adam.pilarski@dnv.com), Senior Vice President, AVITAS

This presentation deals with questions of aircraft values. The issue has tremendous practical importance to airlines, manufacturers and financiers of aircraft. Value behavior is often relatively well understood with stable causalities and predictable outcomes. All of a sudden these relationships seem to disappear and the markets collapse.

Values are influenced by a multitude of factors both on the demand and supply side. Each of these factors has complex, at times nonlinear relationships with value and with other factors. A number of unpredictable events influence values significantly. The markets also exhibit typical “bubble” behavior where the timing of bursting of the bubble is the important issue. Data ambiguity also adds to the difficulty of reasonable predictions.

The approach is one of describing the situation rather the answers and techniques of getting them. The system that could determine aircraft prices has to tie demand and supply factors which depend in non linear fashion on the world economy, fuel prices, legal environment for airlines, exogenous factors affecting demand, environmental constraints, production and order cycles and technological and productivity improvements.